In a tournament littered with shock results (and even more shocking failures to qualify) on paper, Zambia’s 1-0 semifinal defeat of Ghana looks like just another aberrance. But is that really the case?

To start with, this Zambian side is a much better team than many perhaps realised. In my previous blog I highlighted the attacking threat posed by Captain Christopher Katongo and rising striker Emmanuel Mayuka, and their performances against Ghana reaffirmed this with Katongo excelling with his incisive passing and Mayuka with his instinctive winner.

Add to this list the highly impressive winger Rainford Kalaba and ‘keeper Kennedy Mweene. Kalaba has been a constant attacking threat and leads the tournament in goalscoring chances created – his ball to put Katongo through in the 31st minute against Ghana was sublime, as was his finish against Senegal that gave the Chipolopolo their first major scalp of the tournament. Likewise, Zambia is indebted to Mweene’s composure and imposing presence, producing a string of excellent saves, none better than the penalty save against Gyan.

Five of the players are graduates from Zambia’s U20 World Cup team that caught the eye in 2007, and with an almost exclusively African-based squad, don’t be surprised if bigger clubs soon come calling for some of these Zambian players. Few outside Portugal fancied the Champions League-winning Porto team of 2003/04, yet history has shown the impressive subsequent achievements of players such as Deco and Ricardo Carvalho, not to mention manager José Mourinho.

Yes, there were a variety of contributing factors – including luck – that played into Zambia’s hands against the Black Stars. Had Ghana recovered physically from its grueling 120 minute encounter with Tunisia three nights earlier on a heavy, rain-sodden pitch? Arguably not. Had Asamoah Gyan recovered psychologically from his World Cup penalty miss? Hindsight suggests not.

But was it ‘luck’ that saw Zambia outplay pre-tournament favourite Senegal? Was it ‘luck’ that saw the Copper Bullets hold their nerve and quiet a fanatical crowd against host Equatorial Guinea?

With all this said, Zambia v Ivory Coast still reads as classic ‘David and Goliath’ encounter. The Ivorian side is oozing class at this tournament – in 450 minutes no side has managed to score against it and with an attack including Didier Drogba, Gervinho, Salomon Kalou and Yaya Touré, don’t expect goals to be hard to come by either.

In midfield the Chipolopolo will have a real battle on their hands. If Seydou Keita demonstrated for Mali what one world class midfielder can do, imagine coming face to face with three? (or four if you count Yaya Touré twice). Didier Zokora showed his vast experience in shackling Keita in the semifinals. Don’t be surprised if he and Cheick Tioté have a similar effect on Katongo.

While searching for obvious ‘weaknesses’ in this Ivorian side is a real stretch, a few glimmers of hope emerge for Zambia.

In Boubacar Barry, Ivory Coast has a diminutive and occasionally eccentric ‘keeper who the Copper Bullets will do well to test physically, especially on high crosses. Carrying a slight hamstring twinge, if Zambia can make Barry uncomfortable, then another spectacular goalkeeping howler is not beyond the realms of possibility.

Should chances go astray, or Zambia catches a lucky break, then look for ‘fragile egos syndrome’ to rear its head, as it did for the Ivorians on occasions during the 2006 and 2010 World Cups. It’s not been the best of seasons in the EPL for Drogba, Kalou or even Gervinho, so the Chipolopolo will cross their fingers that one, or all three, will ‘do a Gyan’ and go missing from about the seventh minute.

It’s a long shot. But irrespective of whether Zambia does or doesn’t achieve the miraculous come Monday (AEDT), few should doubt that it has earned the right to be there and to dare to reach for the sky.

Zambia:

Boasting the best moniker at the Cup of Nations, the Chipolopolo (the Copper Bullets) provided the first major upset of the tournament by shooting down favourite Senegal on the opening night. This was no flash-in-the-pan performance however, as gutsy efforts against Libya and Equatorial Guinea showed.

Zambia relies on a pacy, direct style of football and some impressive, powerful forwards. Captain Christopher Katongo is leading by example with two goals, including the winner against Equatorial Guinea. In young striker Emmanuel Mayuka they have a real talent – second top-scorer in the Swiss Football League this season, Mayuka added to his three strikes in qualifying with goals against Senegal and Libya. Look for more backflip-laden celebrations if Mayuka continues his scoring ways.

Should Zambia reach the final in Libreville it will be a bittersweet occasion. The Gabonese capital was the site of one of the nation’s darkest footballing moments – in 1993 twenty-two national team players and coaching staff lost their lives when their aeroplane crashed into the ocean en route to Senegal for a World Cup Qualifier.

Sudan:

It wouldn’t be the Africa Cup of Nations without some surprises, and in Sudan the quarterfinals have a real dark horse. Compact and resolute, Sudan conceded just three goals in six qualifiers, holding group winner Ghana to a nil-all draw in the process. Indeed defensive frugality was its secret weapon – after a 2-2 draw with Angola, and with both sides beating Burkina Faso 2-1, it was Sudan’s ability to limit a star-studded Ivory Coast to a solitary goal that saw it secure second in the group courtesy goal difference.

With an exclusively domestic-based squad there are no obvious stars for the Falcons of Jediane, although with the likely front six against Zambia all teammates at Al-Hilal Omdurman, cohesion could be a factor. With two goals against Burkino Faso and a brilliant assist for Bashir’s opener against Angola, look for young striker Mudather El Tahir to be at the heart of most things for the Sudanese.

Equatorial Guinea:

With less than 160-odd caps spread across the entire squad, don’t expect ‘experience’ to be the hallmark of this predominantly foreign-born side. Yet faced with the daunting prospect of Ivory Coast in the quarterfinals, perhaps not having been there before is the greatest asset the Nzalang Nacional have.

Playing in their first ever Cup of Nations and roared on by a fanatical home crowd expect the Equatoguineans to come out strongly. Whether they finish that way however is another matter.

In a squad devoid of household names, FIFA’s second highest ranked Guinea (behind ‘classic’ Guinea, but just shading Guinea-Bissau, and Papua New Guinea) will look to former Real Madrid winger Javier Balboa for inspiration.

If, as expected, the ‘Mighty Ducks’ of the 2012 Cup of Nations succumb to the power of Ivory Coast, the players at least won’t go back to their respective homes disappointed; playboy billionaire, Minister of Agriculture and Forestry, and son of the President, Teodoro Obiang, has already rewarded the squad $US 1 million for its win against Libya.

Ivory Coast:

It’s been twenty years since Africa’s top ranked side last won the Cup of Nations, but with the talents at its disposal, many feel that this time round it just has to be Ivory Coast’s tournament.

Boasting superstars Didier Drogba and Yaya Touré, the Ivorian supporting cast isn’t too bad either – throw in English Premier League stars Gervinho, Salomon Kalou, Kolo Touré and Cheick Tioté, and it’s hard to find a weakness in Côte D’Ivoire’s line up. The Elephants rarely looked stretched during the group stage, winning all three matches without conceding.

With defending champion Egypt failing to qualify, and rivals Senegal and Morocco eliminated in the group stage, an Ivory Coast v Ghana final seems pre-destined. If there is a banana-skin in these quarter finals however – this is it. Facing the relatively unknown quantity of Equatorial Guinea, an early goal coupled with vociferous home support could rattle the more fancied Ivorians. It’s a long shot, but stranger things have happened at the Cup of Nations.

Gabon:

For entertainment value at this year’s tournament it’s hard to go past co-host Gabon. Full of running and optimism the Panthers hurried and harried their more fancied opponents Morocco and Tunisia, allowing very little time and space, especially in midfield. The flipside of this is that at times Gabon could be accused of naivety – needing a calm head to slow things down and avoid letting sides back in, as they nearly did at the death against Morocco.

Look to Gabonese footballing legend Danny Cousin to provide this leadership, as well as a few headaches for opposing defenders.

Complementing the physicality of Cousin is the skill and speed of Pierre Aubameyang who has been a real revelation at this tournament.

Of all the quarterfinals, Gabon v Mali seems the most evenly balanced. Again, home ground advantage could be a deciding factor, with the Gabonese spurred far beyond expectations during the group stages. On paper the Malians should be the better team – they’ll need to lift their game and their energy levels though if they’re to stop the Panthers from slinking to their first ever semifinal.

Mali:

Form often counts for little come the knockout stages of major tournaments, and Mali will be hoping this is the case, given its concerning lack of it during the group stages. Arguably outplayed by Guinea, the Eagles were far from impressive against debutant Botswana, and showed a disconcerting lack of ambition against more fancied Ghana.

Despite this, there are several key reasons why Mali can be confident going into this tricky quarterfinal fixture. If anyone knows the weaknesses of the Gabonese, it’s manager Alain Giresse – the Frenchmen spent four years in charge of the Panthers before jumping ship to Mali. In Seydou Keita the Eagles also have one of the key players at the tournament. Despite some quiet performances so far, it was Keita’s goal against Botswana that saw Mali progress, and don’t be surprised if this big game player has a decisive influence once the stakes are raised.

Without former African Footballer of the Year Freddie Kanouté who retired from the national team in 2010, this Mali team will do well do emulate its semifinal appearances in 2002 and 2004. For the Eagles to soar the onus will be on young up-and-coming strikers such as Modibo Maiga and Cheick Diabaté to take advantage of Kanouté’s absence and announce themselves on the world scene.

Tunisia:

It wouldn’t be the business end of the Cup of Nations without Tunisia – the North African side has qualified for the last ten consecutive tournaments, making the quarterfinals on seven of these occasions.

In captain Karim Haggui the Eagles of Carthage (as opposed to the Eagles of Bamako) have a real leader – a seven-season regular of the Bundesliga, he’s also the only man at the tournament who knows what it’s like to win the Cup of Nations, having done so in 2004. Striker Issam Jemaa is another to watch for – he’s Tunisia’s all-time leading goal scorer, and he showed all his experience in snatching a 90th minute winner against Niger.

Facing an all-star Ghanaian side is however another prospect altogether. Needing to beat Gabon to avoid the Black Stars in the quarterfinals, Tunisia showed a remarkable lack of ambition.

Ghana:

This is almost the same squad that nearly became the first African nation to reach the semifinals of the 2010 World Cup. In 2008 Ghana finished third at the Cup of Nations and in 2010 second – what odds that the Black Stars go one better in 2012?

Star striker Asamoah Gyan appears to have lost no sharpness after his shock move to the UAE Pro-League, scoring a brilliant curling freekick against Mali before turning provider with a cheeky backheel for Ghana’s second. The scorer, André ‘Dede’ Ayew, is another key performer for the Black Stars – the Olympique Marseille winger has looked dangerous so far, and 2012 could just be the tournament in which the son of African footballing legend Abedi Pele cements his own fame.

Yet for every loser there is a winner. When you highlight Egypt’s embarrassing failure to qualify you take away from the stunning achievements of Niger, which bested the seven-time champion, ‘Bafana Bafana’, and Sierra Leone to take part in its first ‘CAN’. Throw in fellow debutant Botswana, conflict-ravaged Libya and Sudan, and unfancied hosts Gabon and Equatorial Guinea and what you do have is one of the most unpredictable, exciting and engrossing editions in recent memory.

What’s not to love about sports-obsessed Gabonese President Ali Bongo rebuilding a 35,000-seat stadium in a town with a population barely larger than that – so that his country can host the third largest football tournament on Earth?

In co-host Equatorial Guinea, you have a one-stop media circus – the ‘Miron Bleiberg’ of African football. Ranked No.151 in the world, the tiny oil-drenched nation drag-netted an Armada of foreign-born players – 10 Spaniards, five Cameroonians, a Brazilian, an Ivorian, a Liberian, a Columbian and a Nigerian (alongside two native Equatoguineans) to strengthen its campaign. Less than a month out from the tournament, however, the former France national coach Henri Michel quit his post as manager, citing ‘third party interference’, but presumably also in fear of the performances of his rag-tag crew.

Yet what have we seen so far? Upsets, some spectacular goals, and high drama to boot.

Those that had the good fortune to watch Gabon v Morocco were treated to an exhilarating game, complemented by an exuberant and colourful home crowd in the throes of jubilant hysteria. With 70 minutes gone, Morocco was a picture of composure, playing the football that saw it considered a realistic chance of lifting the trophy. Yet buoyed by the talismanic presence of Danny ‘The Panzer’ Cousin, the Gabonese began to launch forward in waves of attack. A sublime volley by the impressive Pierre Aubameyang followed by an inspired Cousin finish in the space of three minutes had the ‘Atlas Lions’ reeling.

As the ululations from the crowd rose to fever pitch, Morocco was gifted a 91st-minute lifeline via the penalty spot. Having seemingly revived its flagging tournament hopes, the 1976 champion breathed a sigh of relief. But deep into Fergie-time, with eight extra minutes played, up stepped Bruno ‘the Gabonese David Beckham’ Mbanangoye, with a sumptuous curling free-kick that made his namesake’s effort against Greece in October 2001 look like a tap-in. As pandemonium broke loose in the stands, a close-up of Morocco coach, Eric Gerets, said it all – the vastly experienced Belgian had seen almost everything in football, but he’d never witnessed this.

Watching the progress of Gabon and fellow host Equatorial Guinea reminds me of the magic of the FA Cup, where every few years a minnow captivates the imagination. In the spirit of Havant & Waterlooville v Liverpool, at this Africa Cup of Nations there’s been Equatorial Guinea v Senegal, Sudan v Ivory Coast, and Gabon v Morocco. Imagine the pre-game nerves of David Alvarez (aka ‘Kily’), who traded fourth division Spanish football to mark one of the English Premier League’s hottest marksmen, Demba Ba. The last laughs were with Kily – his 94th-minute long-range belter saw the pre-tournament favourite, Senegal, packing its bags.

Imagine the on-pitch conversations between the Sudanese defenders Najem Abdalla and Amir Kamal. Would they have ever thought they’d be asking each other ‘have you got Drogba, or have I?’

As we arrive at the business end of the tournament, it’s hard to imagine perennial heavyweights Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana, with their bag-load of European-based superstars, faltering. But previous aspirants to the title such as Senegal and Morocco have crashed unceremoniously to Earth, adding to the host of big names that fell before the finals had even begun.

A semi-final with surprise packages Zambia or Sudan awaits the Black Stars (should they get by Tunisia), and with the host nation having won 11 of the previous 27 tournaments what odds for plucky Gabon or Equatorial Guinea adding their names to that list?

As the sudden-death matches loom, don’t be surprised if there’s one last twist in the already eventful 2012 Africa Cup of Nations.