Zambia's right to dream

In a tournament littered with shock results (and even more shocking failures to qualify) on paper, Zambia’s 1-0 semifinal defeat of Ghana looks like just another aberrance. But is that really the case?

To start with, this Zambian side is a much better team than many perhaps realised. In my previous blog I highlighted the attacking threat posed by Captain Christopher Katongo and rising striker Emmanuel Mayuka, and their performances against Ghana reaffirmed this with Katongo excelling with his incisive passing and Mayuka with his instinctive winner.

Add to this list the highly impressive winger Rainford Kalaba and ‘keeper Kennedy Mweene. Kalaba has been a constant attacking threat and leads the tournament in goalscoring chances created – his ball to put Katongo through in the 31st minute against Ghana was sublime, as was his finish against Senegal that gave the Chipolopolo their first major scalp of the tournament. Likewise, Zambia is indebted to Mweene’s composure and imposing presence, producing a string of excellent saves, none better than the penalty save against Gyan.

Five of the players are graduates from Zambia’s U20 World Cup team that caught the eye in 2007, and with an almost exclusively African-based squad, don’t be surprised if bigger clubs soon come calling for some of these Zambian players. Few outside Portugal fancied the Champions League-winning Porto team of 2003/04, yet history has shown the impressive subsequent achievements of players such as Deco and Ricardo Carvalho, not to mention manager José Mourinho.

Yes, there were a variety of contributing factors – including luck – that played into Zambia’s hands against the Black Stars. Had Ghana recovered physically from its grueling 120 minute encounter with Tunisia three nights earlier on a heavy, rain-sodden pitch? Arguably not. Had Asamoah Gyan recovered psychologically from his World Cup penalty miss? Hindsight suggests not.

But was it ‘luck’ that saw Zambia outplay pre-tournament favourite Senegal? Was it ‘luck’ that saw the Copper Bullets hold their nerve and quiet a fanatical crowd against host Equatorial Guinea?

With all this said, Zambia v Ivory Coast still reads as classic ‘David and Goliath’ encounter. The Ivorian side is oozing class at this tournament – in 450 minutes no side has managed to score against it and with an attack including Didier Drogba, Gervinho, Salomon Kalou and Yaya Touré, don’t expect goals to be hard to come by either.

In midfield the Chipolopolo will have a real battle on their hands. If Seydou Keita demonstrated for Mali what one world class midfielder can do, imagine coming face to face with three? (or four if you count Yaya Touré twice). Didier Zokora showed his vast experience in shackling Keita in the semifinals. Don’t be surprised if he and Cheick Tioté have a similar effect on Katongo.

While searching for obvious ‘weaknesses’ in this Ivorian side is a real stretch, a few glimmers of hope emerge for Zambia.

In Boubacar Barry, Ivory Coast has a diminutive and occasionally eccentric ‘keeper who the Copper Bullets will do well to test physically, especially on high crosses. Carrying a slight hamstring twinge, if Zambia can make Barry uncomfortable, then another spectacular goalkeeping howler is not beyond the realms of possibility.

Should chances go astray, or Zambia catches a lucky break, then look for ‘fragile egos syndrome’ to rear its head, as it did for the Ivorians on occasions during the 2006 and 2010 World Cups. It’s not been the best of seasons in the EPL for Drogba, Kalou or even Gervinho, so the Chipolopolo will cross their fingers that one, or all three, will ‘do a Gyan’ and go missing from about the seventh minute.

It’s a long shot. But irrespective of whether Zambia does or doesn’t achieve the miraculous come Monday (AEDT), few should doubt that it has earned the right to be there and to dare to reach for the sky.